The simultaneous leadership transitions in Mexico and the United States are poised to reshape economic dynamics across North America. With Claudia Sheinbaum taking office as Mexico’s president and Donald Trump returning to power in the U.S., changes in trade policies, fiscal priorities, and cross-border relations are likely to ripple through the Mexican economy. One sector uniquely positioned at the intersection of these shifts is the sale leaseback market, a real estate financing tool increasingly popular among businesses seeking capital efficiency.
Understanding how these presidencies may influence Mexico’s broader economy and its sale leaseback landscape is critical for investors, developers, and companies alike.
Mexico’s economy faces a dual challenge: navigating its internal political changes while adjusting to potential U.S. policies under Trump, such as tariffs on Mexican imports. Trump’s recent announcement of a proposed 25% tariff on imports from Mexico to address issues like drug trafficking and migration has raised alarm across markets. Since Mexico is the U.S.’s largest trade partner, representing 15.8% of total trade as of September 2024, these tariffs could disrupt trade flows and weigh heavily on the Mexican economy. For Mexico, retaliatory tariffs could exacerbate trade tensions and inflation, straining industries that rely on cross-border supply chains. Sheinbaum’s administration has emphasized the risks, warning that tariffs could trigger job losses, inflation, and economic instability. In this context, companies operating in Mexico will likely face higher costs, uncertain trade conditions, and tightened margins. As these pressures mount, alternative financing mechanisms, including sale leasebacks, could play an increasingly vital role in enabling businesses to unlock needed liquidity.
A sale leaseback transaction allows companies to sell owned real estate—such as warehouses, medical facilities, or retail properties—to an investor while leasing it back long-term. This arrangement provides immediate cash flow, enabling businesses to reinvest in operations or navigate periods of uncertainty without relinquishing the use of critical operating assets.
The sale leaseback market in Mexico has seen robust growth, driven by asset-intensive industries such as manufacturing, logistics, and retail, which are often closely tied to U.S.-Mexico trade. However, with rising trade tensions and potential economic headwinds, the Mexico sale leaseback market could experience new opportunities and challenges under the incoming administrations.
Despite potential headwinds, the Mexican sale leaseback market remains well-positioned to adapt to the evolving economic landscape. Key factors to watch include:
The dual transitions of power in Mexico and the United States mark a critical juncture for the Mexican economy and its sale leaseback market. While trade tensions and tariff threats present potential near-term challenges, sale leasebacks can offer businesses a strategic tool to weather uncertainty and maintain financial flexibility.
For investors, Mexico’s long-term potential as a manufacturing and logistics hub remains compelling, particularly if Sheinbaum’s administration can navigate economic headwinds effectively. As the economic landscape evolves under these new presidencies, the sale leaseback market will continue to play a vital role in supporting businesses and unlocking opportunities in one of Latin America’s largest economies.
To learn more about how sale leasebacks can be implemented to support your company’s growth in Mexico, follow the links below to prior case studies of the Ascension team’s successful completion of sale leasebacks in the region: