The U.S. government’s recent push for sweeping global tariffs has reignited fears of a fragmented trade environment. From increased duties on Chinese imports to murmurs of tariff adjustments even against North American partners, companies across sectors are reassessing their supply chain footprints. But amid the uncertainty, one truth is becoming increasingly clear:
Mexico is still the biggest winner.
With its unique position as a nearshoring hub for U.S. bound manufacturing and logistics, Mexico is poised to capture outsized industrial demand even if new tariffs hit its exports. As this shift accelerates, sale leasebacks (SLBs) are emerging as a critical financing tool for both Mexican and multinational firms expanding operations across the country.
Tariffs Are Reshaping Supply Chains Again
New tariffs from the U.S. are aimed at reducing dependency on Chinese and other foreign manufacturing, particularly in sectors like EVs, semiconductors, and critical materials. But the broader consequence is a renewed urgency for companies to relocate or diversify production closer to end markets.
For many companies, that means Mexico.
Despite some political rhetoric about revisiting trade terms with Mexico, the underlying supply chain realities are hard to ignore. The country remains a key part in U.S. economic security, particularly in auto, aerospace, electronics, and consumer goods. The infrastructure is mature, the labor is skilled and cost-effective and the cross-border logistics are simply unmatched.
Why Mexico Wins - Even with Tariff Pressure
Yes, the U.S. could impose selective tariffs on Mexican goods. But here’s why Mexico remains strategically indispensable:
- Deep U.S.-Mexico integration: Entire industries (automotive, agriculture, electronics) rely on Mexico-based components.
- Proximity and lead time: Faster-to-market advantage compared to Asia; essential in just-in-time supply chains.
- ·Cost-effective labor and land: Even with some tariffs, many goods made in Mexico remain cheaper than alternatives.
- ·USMCA protections: While not bulletproof, the agreement offers a framework for dispute resolution and trade stability.
Sunk cost reality: For many firms, moving out of Mexico would be more expensive and disruptive than adapting to a new tariff environment.
Rather than deterring investment, the threat of tariffs is reinforcing the logic of doubling down in Mexico - but with more flexible capital strategies.
Sale leasebacks Are The Financing Powerhouse Behind Nearshoring
As companies scale in Mexico, one challenge stands out: access to capital.
Expanding industrial operations - whether through build-to-suit facilities, machinery upgrades, or relocating full production lines requires significant upfront investment. Traditional lending can be slow, dilutive, or constrained by broader financial headwinds.
That’s where sale leasebacks come in.
A sale leaseback allows an owner-occupier to sell their real estate to an investor while remaining in control of the facility as a long-term tenant. The result? Liquidity without disruption.
Why SLBs are ideal in this environment:
- Unlock tied-up capital from owned industrial facilities
- Reinvest in operations without taking on debt
- Preserve operational control via long-term leases
- Hedge against inflation with fixed-rate, long-duration rent structures
- Finance build-to-suit projects without having to tie up capital
For both Mexican firms and multinationals growing their footprint, SLBs provide the capital agility needed to move fast and stay competitive.
A Surge in Investor Appetite
This nearshoring boom hasn’t gone unnoticed. U.S. and international investors are increasingly looking to Mexico for higher-yielding, inflation-hedged opportunities, especially in industrial real estate.
Mexico offers:
- Higher cap rates than comparable U.S. industrial assets
- Strong tenant demand and low vacancy in Tier-1 markets (Monterrey, Querétaro, Saltillo, Tijuana)
- Dollar or peso-denominated lease flexibility
- Long-term visibility with investment-grade and mid-market tenants alike
Private equity funds, REITs, family offices, and institutional players are all circling the SLB space, seeking to capitalize on the dual tailwinds of demand growth and limited supply.
Tariffs Are A Trigger, Not a Dealbreaker
While headlines focus on trade tensions, smart capital is focusing on trade adaptation.
Tariffs may slow certain flows, but they’re unlikely to reverse the nearshoring megatrend already underway. In fact, they might accelerate it. And companies that have already made the Mexico move are now looking to optimize, expand, and monetize their real estate, not reverse course.
Final Takeaway
Mexico’s industrial boom isn’t a passing phase, it’s a structural realignment. Even with the possibility of U.S. tariffs, the country’s location, cost advantages, and trade infrastructure make it the go-to destination for nearshoring. As this shift accelerates, sale leasebacks will play a central role, fueling growth, preserving flexibility, and offering investors an attractive entry point into one of the most compelling industrial stories of the decade.
Are you curios about the potential benefits of re-locating, expanding or monetizing current or upcoming real estate footprint in Mexico? Reach out to the Ascension team for a complimentary consultation to learn more about your options or read more via the links below:
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